The Atlantic current system, or more formally the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is more likely to weaken than previously thought. That's the conclusion of a new study published in the journal Science Advances, which used more refined modeling techniques to get a clearer picture of the future. If these new projections are correct, the consequences could be severe, particularly for Europe and Africa.
    • NocturnalMorning@lemmy.worldOPEnglish
      7·
      11 days ago

      Yeah, sadly, this is a science community, but, this is an extremely emotional article. I tried to pick the most neutral source i could just to put the information out there.

      I was in a good mood until I read this article.

  • it_depends_man@lemmy.worldEnglish
    4·
    11 days ago

    The thing I’m concerned about is not the absolute number when news like this are published, but the magnitude of the error. Not in a “haha, they’re so wrong, lol” way, but in a “if they get it this wrong over x years, I wonder what the error will be in 2x years”.

    “Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone.”

    Being off by 60% is massive and then new estimate will have some margin of error as well. Which could go back to the original value, but it could also be worse. We just don’t know.

    • NocturnalMorning@lemmy.worldOPEnglish
      7·
      11 days ago

      The problem is the AMOC is highly variable. They used the original models as well for comparison. One of the things this model does that’s new is model the salinity variability better.

      If they’re wrong, that’s probably a good thing, unless they’re wrong in that it will be worse than predicted.

      The issue is climate predictions have been very pessimistic already, and we are blowing past them already.

      It’s kind of like, we were right, but it’s happening earlier than expected. Honestly, that’s not a good feeling.

      My wife does research on resilience, and one of the things they have to do is use a large number of climate models to make sure they aren’t underestimating effects.

      Sadly, we don’t know what we don’t know.