I firmly believe OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., will all eventually collapse under their own weight, meanwhile open weight distillations of their models will become the de facto standard for AI usage. There’s just no way they can ever make up all the money they’ve burned in R&D, especially when distillations are right behind them.
What happens to Nvidia when the AI bubble pops though? They will lose so much revenue. Now they should be perfectly sustainable still given that they can sell GPUs to the same customers they used to. But will shareholders like that?
90% of Anthropic money is enterprise API use which is far less subsidised than their subscriptions being 10% of their income. OpenAI on the otherhand relies on the subs.
There is still going to be a big bubble bursting. It’ll be interesting to see how each company handles it.
Oh, you perhaps misunderstand me, friend. I’m saying their revenues are a momentary mirage, the liabilities aren’t.
They need income that substantiates the growth game and justifies the outlandish, impossible tidal wave of debt they are raising. Their competitors nipping at their heels and stealing all of their progress, and making it run on commodity hardware to boot, only narrows that field of play for justifying their market growth.
If you’re Tesla and unmasking your customer base revealed it was all just BYD all the way down (or, say, something TRULY absurd like everyone found out all of the cybertrucks were bought by SpaceX) then it would cast serious doubt about their viability with the next generation of customers targeted for that product.
I firmly believe OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., will all eventually collapse under their own weight, meanwhile open weight distillations of their models will become the de facto standard for AI usage. There’s just no way they can ever make up all the money they’ve burned in R&D, especially when distillations are right behind them.
they have to pay off those datacenters somehow, the only one whos partially laughing to the bank is jensen.
What happens to Nvidia when the AI bubble pops though? They will lose so much revenue. Now they should be perfectly sustainable still given that they can sell GPUs to the same customers they used to. But will shareholders like that?
90% of Anthropic money is enterprise API use which is far less subsidised than their subscriptions being 10% of their income. OpenAI on the otherhand relies on the subs.
There is still going to be a big bubble bursting. It’ll be interesting to see how each company handles it.
Check out what portion of Anthropic revenues turned out to be processing distillation for others, namely Chinese market players.
A huge portion of their revenue basically came from their competitors using their horsepower against them to build the next, better mouse trap
Fortunately they keep pushing ahead so those competitors will need to keep paying them to distill.
Oh, you perhaps misunderstand me, friend. I’m saying their revenues are a momentary mirage, the liabilities aren’t.
They need income that substantiates the growth game and justifies the outlandish, impossible tidal wave of debt they are raising. Their competitors nipping at their heels and stealing all of their progress, and making it run on commodity hardware to boot, only narrows that field of play for justifying their market growth.
If you’re Tesla and unmasking your customer base revealed it was all just BYD all the way down (or, say, something TRULY absurd like everyone found out all of the cybertrucks were bought by SpaceX) then it would cast serious doubt about their viability with the next generation of customers targeted for that product.