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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: November 30th, 2023

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  • Yeah, someone else commented with their financials and they look really good, so while I certainly agree that they are overvalued because we are in an AI training bubble, I don’t see it popping for a few years, especially given that they are selling the shovels. every big player in the space is set on orders of magnitude of additional compute for the next 2 years or more. It doesn’t matter if the company they sold gpus to fails if they already sold them. Something big that unexpected would have to happen to upset that trajectory right now and I don’t see it because companies are in the exploratory stage of ai tech so no one knows what doesn’t work until they get the computer they need. I could be wrong, but that’s what I see as a watcher of ai news channels on YouTube.

    The co founder of open AI just got a billion dollars for his new 3 month old AI start up. They are going to spend that money on talent and compute. X just announced a data center with 100,000 gpus for grok2 and plans to build the largest in the world I think? But that’s Elon, so grains of salt and all that are required there. Nvidia are working with robotics companies to make AI that can train robots virtually to do a task and in the real world a robot will succeed first try. No more Boston dynamics abuse compilation videos. Right now agentic ai workflow is supposed to be the next step, so there will be overseer ai algorithms to develop and train.

    All that is to say there is a ton of work that requires compute for the next few years.

    {Opinion here} – I feel like a lot of people are seeing grifters and a wobbly gpt4o launch and calling the game too soon. It takes time to deliver the next product when it’s a new invention in its infancy and the training parameters are scaling nearly logarithmically from gen to gen.

    I’m sure the structuring of payment for the compute devices isn’t as simple as my purchase of a gaming GPU from microcenter, but Nvidia are still financially sound. I could see a lot of companies suffering from this long term but nvidia will be The player in AI compute, whatever that looks like, so they are going to bounce back and be fine.











  • The real answer has to lie in the definition of “nothing” in the context of what counts as having something to show for your spent money vs not having anything to show for it and succeeding.

    It’s most basic form is:

    If nothing means no physical products then you can’t buy a jet, but you can donate it all to charities.

    You win

    ---------

    So the next level of having nothing at the end may prohibit donations, considering that to be a type of “gifting”

    So now you have to spend it on a service. No holding on to goods, no donations.

    So you use AWS and set up a bullshit loop of web traffic that produces a 100M$ bill for server usage.

    You win.

    ---------

    So now we must ask if the genie considers the service performed to you by AWS to be “something.”

    What could we possibly do next?

    Set up a charity ourselves and use the 100M as seed capital? Maybe, but if you own it or gain the assets like buildings or something you might lose.

    Buy 50M lotto tickets and hope you don’t win? (Powerball is 2$ a piece I think.). Maybe…but that’s risky. That’s like a 1 in 6 or 7 chance to win at that point, plus you’re nearly guaranteed to win snaller prizes which would have to be dealt with.

    I think the answer is a boat. A fuckin huge one that’s a little older. This does two things, 1.) its a single object holding all the value. If we can end the month without it, then we win. 2.) it’s easy to get into dangerous and perilous situations in a boat.

    Sail that bitch into a hurricane and try to turn around. This runs the risk of failing if the boat lives, but all you gotta do is turn it sideways relative to the huge waves. As long as you genuinely were sailing the ship and not sabotaging it I don’t think it would fall under the “throwing money away” category.

    Idk. It’s hard I’ve you get ticky tacky with the definition of nothing. I guess you could just yolo options. Either you’re going to be broke or you’ll have billions of dollars by the end so you win either way? Maybe the boat thing ain’t the answer. Lol I’m gonna leave it anyway.