War happens, and countries will get flattened within weeks by a coalition

Why didn’t the US and UK and France flatten OPEC at its inception? Why did the US fail in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan?

The military might of the US can flatten a lot, no doubt about it, but it cannot build something to its benefit after, unless it is some smaller countries.

And what happens if the Oil and Gas are cut off to the US and its allies? Even if the US is producing enough by now to cover itself domestically, it would need to jump in for all its allies, unless it wants to loose them. And well, they cannot product this much.

The US couldn’t win in Iraq. They couldn’t win in Afghanistan.

There is no way they would “win” when the flow of Oil and Gas gets cut off for them, the Gulfs are closed for them and the closest place to stage their airforce would be in Cyprus. The US could use its navy to deny oil and gas to everyone else too, but that would bring the rest of the world against them too. To properly reestablish control, they would need boots on the ground. This would require millions, maybe tens of millions of soldiers. Just between Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi, Yemen and Egypt and the Gulf states that is about 350 million people. Add Turkiye, Sudan, Libya, Algeria and Morocco and you get some more 250 million more on top.

In such a scenario the US would most likely sacrifice Israel.

Problem is one of the “crazies” not only going after neighbor after neighbor after neighbor, with you likely being one of the next ones, but also holding a family hostage in their home, killing their newborns and torturing them for fun.

Without a serious reconcilliation and move towards Arab unity, Israel will eventually knock on everyones doorstep.

08:10 GMT:

Israel’s defence minister orders ‘intense strikes’ on Tehran

Israel Katz has instructed the Israeli military to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran,” according to media reports.

This comes shortly after the Israeli military said it was now safe to exit shelters.

The Times of Israel said Iran fired two ballistic missiles and that both were intercepted.

30 hours aren’t multiple days. Nonetheless it is completely reckless for this to occur in the first place, endangering both patients and staff.

Even then, taking some sleep during the breaks is preferable over going without any sleep.

This is terrible advice.

Nobody goes “routinely” multiple days without sleeping. The only way military is doing that if necessary is methamphetamine, see German troops during WW2.

After 24-48 hours there will be an onset of psychosis, after 48 hours without sleep most people experience psychosis, especially in combination with drugs.

Gajin was founded in Russia and only moved offices to Hungary in 2015.

Giving a temporary ban reserves plausible deniability while keeping the honeypot open.

You are arguing against a complete strawman. The claim was that Iranians would “remember” “liberty”, which serves to whitewash the Shahs regime. I refuted that claim as it is evidently wrong. I don’t know why you think that an internal police murdering, torturing and dissapearing thousands of people would fall under any understanding of liberty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK

The Bureau for Intelligence and Security of the State (Persian: سازمان اطلاعات و امنیت کشور, romanized: Sâzmân-e Ettelâ’ât va Amniyyat-e Kešvar), shortened to SAVAK (Persian: ساواک) or S.A.V.A.K. (Persian: س.ا.و.ا.ک),[2] was the secret police of the Imperial State of Iran. It was established in Tehran in 1957 by national security law,[3] and continued to operate until the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when it was dissolved by Iranian prime minister Shapour Bakhtiar.

Writing at the time of the Shah’s overthrow, Time magazine on February 19, 1979, described SAVAK as having “long been Iran’s most hated and feared institution” which had “tortured and murdered thousands of the Shah’s opponents”.[7] The Federation of American Scientists also found it guilty of “the torture and execution of thousands of political prisoners” and symbolising “the Shah’s rule from 1963–79.” The FAS list of SAVAK torture methods included “electric shock, whipping, beating, inserting broken glass and pouring boiling water into the rectum, tying weights to the testicles, and the extraction of teeth and nails”.

A lot of the structures and part of the personell of SAVAK was then integrated into the current internal police such as the Evin Prtison

There was no liberty under the US backed regime and whitewashing them as a means to present the US and Israel as the better alternative is wrong.

The claim that there was “liberty” before is false. Unless “liberty” means being under surpression by an US installed regime.

Maersk is still shipping weapons to Israel. They are still wearing a west soaked in blood until that ends.

Why did Iranians fight a revolution against the US and Israel backed Shah again? I think Israel and the US, and when they still mattered the UK were pretty deadly for Iranians and continued to be ever since.

We have never been at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with East Asia

We are talking 20% of global supply here.

The US can’t just buffer that for its own people. Also this affects all manufacturing and shipping outside the US going to the US.

And if the US doesnt share the consequences and deliver oil to its “allies” in Europe that will damage the relationships substantially.

Thats exactly it. It shows how uttetly pathetic most EU governments are, who see themselves as nothing more than an extension of the US empire and the lapdogs of whoever is president in Washington.

This will probably be the calmest year of the years to come.

Russia, the US and EU are failing slowly, with Russia and the US kicking around in the process. The EU doesn’t really know what to do except follow suit to the US, no matter the stupidity.

Aside from these three China seems to be emerging for now, but is running into huge demographic issues that the others already have.

Neoliberal Capitalism is destroying the very foundations of society and leading to a new rise of Fascism as it is ideologically way too deeply entrenched to overcome itself and the mantra of eternal growth and eternal capital accumulation at the top.

On top of all this the climate catastrophe is picking up intensity every year and the effects will cause more and more disruption.

Meanwhile any attempts at spearheading a better world, one of sustainable economies and basic human rights are disrupted by the forces of old, who employ ever more gruesome weapons and tools of mass surveillance while refusing any social innovation.

To answer your question: Yes it is overwhelming and it will probably get a lot worse.

Specifically Iran says: “We want diplomacy, but we cant negotiate while being bombed.”

Also note that Israel prides itself in having assassinated multiple negotiators that were engaged in “negotiations” with Israel or the US in 2024 and 2025 and the US has previously lured an Iranian negotiator into an assassination under the pretext of negotiations in 2020.

The people in Iran are old enough to remember a time before the current regime and the liberty they enjoyed.

Before the Islamic revolution Iran was ruled by the Shah, who the US and UK couped into power against Irans last democratically elected president in 1953. The Shah terrorized his people with the support of the aforementioned and Israel, murdering, torturing and disappearing tens of thousand of people, which is why the whole revolution took off.

Claiming Iranians used to enjoy liberty under the Shah is peak apologism. That doesn’t mean that Iranians are enjoying many freedoms under the current regime, but there is no indication that the US would bring any “liberty” like they did not bring “liberty” to any place they intervened. Instead the go to are Fascist dictators mass murdering their own people like Pinochet, the Contras, the Shah…

Meanwhile a regime change forced by the US and Israel in Iran will not lead “back into the world community”. It will lead to another puppet dictator at best and more likely to the “balkanization” of Iran, so the destruction of the nation and creation of a system of eternally warring regional rulers like it was organized in Libya and Syria.

Iran and its allies and proxies have to retaliate against US positions in the region. If Iran doesnt respond, they will be considered fair game for bombing whenever the US and Israel are bored. Both US and Israel just proved that diplomacy is off the table with them. Neither country speaks any language but violence.