I’m basing this all on reports from the Institute for the Study of War (which is a Washington based organization, mind you). I’m just a layman who likes reading the ISW. So take it with a grain of salt.

The ISW has repeatedly said (bullet points ISW, comments are mine):

• Russia uses hybrid warfare to accomplish objectives it might not otherwise be able to reach in a traditional conflict. Psyops reinforce real battlefield conditions by, for example, discouraging the west from providing meaningful support such as equipment

A good example of this is over a year ago when there were discussions in The Netherlands against providing Ukraine with F-16’s which were an “offensive weapon”. (Is there such a thing as a ‘defensive’ weapon I ask you?)

• Russia is clearly not interested in coming to the negotiation table and they believe they are still able to make meaningful gains on the battlefield.
• The Kremlin might be smoking too much of it’s own disinformation and is acting on false or misleading information.

They will keep the pressure on since a loss on a battlefield is a sure way for Putin and his ‘strongman’ image to go to shit. Russia needs a victory to sell itself. Nearly everything they do including the disinformation in their papers, the bullshit on TV and the diplomatic signaling to other nations is in service of that. The state controls everything because authoritarianism is a fact and a way of life over there.

I think Putin and his cronies feel existentially threatened because they can’t sell a victory to the people. They’re forced to sell god knows how many of KIA/MIA/WIA/POW. The ISW also reported that an immediate return of Russian combat veterans into society might lead to some nasty stuff and that would have to be dealt with either by Russia or in negotiations with Russia.

Back to what ISW said:

• Russia is in ‘phase zero’ and the ‘information setting stage’ of a conflict with NATO.
• Russia is banking on NATO somehow ‘giving up’ with the war when the going gets tough.
• These drone attacks (or any border/airspace incidents) are part of probing how the west responds and gauging capabilities of the west.

I think there might also a little bit of some soldier somewhere “accidentally” misprogramming a drone’s path to fuck with the west a little? It doensn’t all have to come from higher up. Drone attacks and border incidents can just as easily be one angry vatnik and now you have a diplomatic incident that Putin himself probably believes as “European warmongering”. Who knows?

If Russia can’t win this war? It’s all the fault of the Nazi imperialist west, since the “expansion of NATO” threatens the “traditional” heteronormative values of Russian society. So we’re the cause of this war, even though Russia annexed Crimea, shot down MH17, genocides the Ukrainians, indoctrinates Ukrainian children and kills people in the street and prisoners of war in cold blood.

‘Just war’ theory says something about when entering and continuing a war is ‘just’ or not. I have no idea where nuclear weapons fit into this but I don’t want to find out.

wait, what the fuck? sorry smart fellas and fart smellas. I bumped into this on hackernews and I expected it to be fresh.

Beans of all things? Is this a precursor to fart jokes?