According to IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Germany has significant potential to develop nuclear weapons in a matter of months. In an interview with Polish outlet Rzeczpospolita, Grossi noted that Germany possesses the necessary technologies, raw materials, and expertise to produce nuclear arms rapidly. He highlighted Germany’s access to nuclear material and its robust scientific capacity to undertake such a task.

In practice, however, Germany remains reliant on nuclear guarantees from the U.S. and NATO. As a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Germany is committed to not developing nuclear weapons, leaning on allies like the United States for security. The U.S. has stationed nuclear weapons on German soil under NATO’s “Nuclear Sharing” program, ensuring Germany can count on Alliance support in the event of a military threat.

Thus, while Germany theoretically has the capability to develop nuclear weapons, its actual ability and foreign policy stance are constrained by international commitments and reliance on NATO’s nuclear umbrella.