I guess the question is, what’s Russia’s endgame from all this? Because if we say that the Russian army of today is superior to the Russian army of 2022, which is debatable because while they are more competent, they also lost insane amounts of material, both ground, sea and air war machines; the Russian economy is still worse than it was before?
So what can Russia do with its improved army? Invade the Baltics? That’s a non-starter because of the EU. Invade Georgia? The only significance of that is that it prevents Europe from having an alternative oil and gas supplier than Russia. Invade Kazakhstan or the Caucasus? Wouldn’t that just create another Afghanistan/Ukraine moment where the rest of the world can just send random shit to that country and delete Russian divisions?
Russia also lost the Middle East, meaning Syria is gone and even Iran has its own problems. I’m just not seeing any way forward from this, even if they can patch the economy together.
they also lost insane amounts of material, both ground, sea and air war machines;
Intended for obsolete paradigm of war, a lot of them. Very expensive, old and not so efficient. And not just “lost”, also “tested in real life conditions”.
So what can Russia do with its improved army?
Defend from whatever it fears in the future, that’s probably their idea. If you are expecting a war, due to paranoia or not, this might seem justified. Similar to how averting a hunger is far easier than going through it, because during a hunger people who die also consume food before it, just not enough, and work with worse efficiency. In case of such a war of defense your preserved materiel and people will be expended possibly far less efficiently than in a smaller war to get some experience.
My whole line in this thread is that such a strategy seems to be consistent with the claims of feeling threatened by NATO, officially expressed by Russian officials since 00s. It’s funny, but it’s really so.
Russia also lost the Middle East, meaning Syria is gone and even Iran has its own problems. I’m just not seeing any way forward from this, even if they can patch the economy together.
Perhaps it’s optimization. Doesn’t matter how much you are trying to hold under control if you are not succeeding. Similarly to hunger.
I guess the question is, what’s Russia’s endgame from all this? Because if we say that the Russian army of today is superior to the Russian army of 2022, which is debatable because while they are more competent, they also lost insane amounts of material, both ground, sea and air war machines; the Russian economy is still worse than it was before?
So what can Russia do with its improved army? Invade the Baltics? That’s a non-starter because of the EU. Invade Georgia? The only significance of that is that it prevents Europe from having an alternative oil and gas supplier than Russia. Invade Kazakhstan or the Caucasus? Wouldn’t that just create another Afghanistan/Ukraine moment where the rest of the world can just send random shit to that country and delete Russian divisions?
Russia also lost the Middle East, meaning Syria is gone and even Iran has its own problems. I’m just not seeing any way forward from this, even if they can patch the economy together.
Intended for obsolete paradigm of war, a lot of them. Very expensive, old and not so efficient. And not just “lost”, also “tested in real life conditions”.
Defend from whatever it fears in the future, that’s probably their idea. If you are expecting a war, due to paranoia or not, this might seem justified. Similar to how averting a hunger is far easier than going through it, because during a hunger people who die also consume food before it, just not enough, and work with worse efficiency. In case of such a war of defense your preserved materiel and people will be expended possibly far less efficiently than in a smaller war to get some experience.
My whole line in this thread is that such a strategy seems to be consistent with the claims of feeling threatened by NATO, officially expressed by Russian officials since 00s. It’s funny, but it’s really so.
Perhaps it’s optimization. Doesn’t matter how much you are trying to hold under control if you are not succeeding. Similarly to hunger.
Anyway, this is me playing devil’s advocate.