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All the elements are in place for a strike inside Venezuela
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Diplomatic relations with Venezuela have been broken since 2019.
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In 2020, the US indicted President Maduro for narco-terrorism, placing a $15 million bounty on him, subsequently raised to $25m and now $50m.
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On January 20, Trump took office. Executive Order 14157 declared a “national emergency” and designated international drug-trafficking groups as “foreign terrorist organizations” (FTOs) and “specially designated global terrorists,” citing authority under the Alien Enemies Act.
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By February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that FTOs posed an “existential threat” and laid the groundwork for treating cartels allegedly linked to President Maduro as enemy combatants.
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In May, the administration opened the path to use military force against FTOs.
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Then in July, a “secret directive” authorized military operations against FTOs at sea and on foreign soil.
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By August, the US launched a massive naval deployment off the coast of Venezuela. By October, troop deployment reportedly reached 10,000.
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On September 2, the US blew up the first of four or five alleged drug boats in international waters off of Venezuela, resulting in extrajudicial murders of the crews.
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By mid-September, the Pentagon notified Congress under the War Powers Resolution that US forces were engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.
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This was followed on October 1 by the Defense Department’s “confidential memo” and more congressional briefings that the US was engaged in armed conflict.
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Trump then terminated the last back-channel diplomatic contacts with Venezuela.
It’d be a forever war. It won’t be as terrible as Vietnam since they’re a lot further from arms suppliers than Vietnam but Venezuela still has a significant military. They have a varied terrain including jungles and mountain ranges. US has historically antagonized every country in Latin America including now neighboring Colombia and Brazil - Brazil itself having a significant arms industry. You may not have a steady stream of Russian fighter jets to Venezuela, but I’m certain missiles, guns, artillery would all manage to make it to Venezuelan resistance. I wouldn’t be surprised if people all the way out from Nicaragua would make their way into Venezuela to fight the US
“significant” can somewhat describe it yeah, but it somehow feels a little generous. taurus makes notoriously shit weapons and i doubt there is any political will from this admin to support venezuela on this.
for once we can hope our moguls get that greedy but they all hate venezuela and will do what they can to stop as much help from crossing the border as they possibly can.
i’m curious but i do NOT want to find out on this one.
I think it would look more like Iraq or Afghanistan than Vietnam. The USA would destroy the existing regime within days, but it isn’t going to be able to snuff out the various post war factions to create a viable country for years to come.
The war would be won, but the occupation would be lost. Even if other countries don’t fund the resistance, there is always cocaine and that funded FARC for decades.
They don’t want to create a viable country, they want to destroy the country and create chaos.
You need boots on the ground if you want a change in regime.
They’ll otherwise just move underground like Iran did, and keep hold of power through gangs (which they already control).
I’m sure the opposition won’t live long in the country if the US attacked, so as to make sure no one’s able to lead a revolution.
If you’re going to compare a war to Vietnam, that assumes boots on the ground. Also, the US strikes against Iran were never considered by either side to be an official act of war.
Yeah it’ll be like Vietnam. FARC was around for 50 years. Now imagine they were fighting with the government instead of against it.
What? It’ll be worse than Vietnam because the enemy is even closer.
The US portion of the Vietnam war killed ~3 million Vietnamese, Lao, and Cambodian people. US bombings in Cambodia during the war lead to the fall of the neutral Cambodian government and the rise of the Khmer Rouge. Immediately before the US portion of the Vietnam war, the French killed hundreds of thousands more. Immediately before that was fighting against Japan and France during WW2. Immediately before that, fighting France for freedom. The Vietnam war was incredibly long and killed millions and set Cambodia towards a genocidal regime.
For Venezuela to be worse, millions would have to killed. Hundreds of thousands killed in neighboring countries. Chemical warfare employed that would lead to birth defects for decades to come. A neighboring country be bombed to civil war where a genocidal dictator rises power and commits a genocide. Venezuela then be successfully sanctioned to an extreme level of poverty for nearly 20+ years
The sanctioning power is already falling apart and non-US centric trade routes are a lot more mature than the 50-90s. The US military runs with extremely expensive equipment compared to the 60s/70s. Slow to build. War in Venezuela means it can’t sustain a war in Europe, the west Pacific, or the Middle East. Russia-Ukraine, Iraq and Afghanistan, Ethiopia-Tigray civil war, Sudan civil war. Got to add up numerous wars to compare to just the US portion of the Vietnam war
Also the US lost like 60,000 people in Vietnami believe France lost a similar amount as the US in the post-WW2 portion of the war
Going back to the Korean war, that too was far more brutal than people bother to learn
The Internet and the large Latin American population in the US may also lead to far more unrest in the US compared to Vietnam war American unrest. Venezuelan immigrants are substantial in the US compared to Viet people in the US during the Vietnam war
The brutality of Vietnam and Korea is like taking the European portion of WW2 and putting them in single countries. Carpet bombing, fire bombing, massacre after massacre. There’s been nothing comparable since. The wars in Africa have had way less difference in killing equipment between the factions compared to Vietnam and Korea and strategy has shifted from destroying everything to being more economical with military equipment. Recall that the US had major factions pushing to use nukes in both Korea and Vietnam. I doubt that’ll be the case for Venezuela
European and by extension American, Australian, South African, etc colonialism were far more genocidal than people get taught. By the 50s it was a lot less genocidal and look how that went. The previous centuries, elimination and replacement of local populations weren’t unpopular ideas, just impractical and not understood how to yet