Realclearpolitics is worse than Nate Silver. They’re openly conservative and manipulate their polling average by accepting only GOP internals not dem ones, which means their averages are super biased GOP.
As for what sources to rely on instead. G Elliot Morris is the gold standard. But there are plenty of hobbyist websites that do just as well (if not better since include internals from both sides) as RCP.
There’s also the fivethirtyeight subreddit on reddit 🤢 which has all the polling nerds and that’s the best place to find resources and people who may know what they’re talking about. Unfortunately such a community hasn’t established itself on the thredi.
FYI, I’m not trolling you. I believe you, I just really don’t know what is fair in that department. I did a little digging and these came up. I’m going to start checking on them:
Nate Silver is a known POS. I strongly suggest to avoid that. Here is one that lists them all: https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
ETA: https://www.salon.com/2024/09/06/nate-silver-faces-backlash-for-pro-model-skewing/
Realclearpolitics is worse than Nate Silver. They’re openly conservative and manipulate their polling average by accepting only GOP internals not dem ones, which means their averages are super biased GOP.
Do you have sources on that? If so, who is a better option than both of them?
I mean the wikipedia page shows it’s “conservative”.
As for what sources to rely on instead. G Elliot Morris is the gold standard. But there are plenty of hobbyist websites that do just as well (if not better since include internals from both sides) as RCP.
For example: https://plusminus4.substack.com/p/2026-senate-polling-averages
There’s also the fivethirtyeight subreddit on reddit 🤢 which has all the polling nerds and that’s the best place to find resources and people who may know what they’re talking about. Unfortunately such a community hasn’t established itself on the thredi.
FYI, I’m not trolling you. I believe you, I just really don’t know what is fair in that department. I did a little digging and these came up. I’m going to start checking on them:
https://www.270towin.com/
https://votehub.com/
Ooops I see I forgot to link to G Elliott Morris’ website. Here ya go
https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/approval/president
I vaguely remember something like that, thanks for the alternative. Direct link at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
G. Elliott Morris used to build 538’s models, and now he does his own. There are Senate and House forecasts there too.