From what I’m reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, … Are any shortages noticeable yet?
ETA:
Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus
Businesses have been filling their inventories. That’s ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn’t prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.
This has certainly been true in the past, but I’m seeing the next few of these will affect the rest of the world less than it did in the past. Other nations are decoupling from USD as a reserve currency so they are a bit more insulated from US economic swings. Further, China will have extra manufacturing capacity since the USA is effectively blocked for many of its goods. This means that China will (likely already is) finding other markets in the world for these goods and others producible from the excess manufacturing capacity. Increased supplied will mean reduced prices everywhere else in the world besides the USA.
Worldwide petroleum prices will likely fall because of reduced demand from the USA. Food prices may be one place prices rise with the reduced production from the ongoing war of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and the voluntary reduction of food imports from the USA in response to USA tariffs on imports. So this will place a strain on non-USA based food producing countries.
I say all of this as an American appalled at what trump is doing to the USA and the world.