Google’s parent company is now pushing toward a $3 trillion market cap, riding the AI wave.
Every major tech stock is up again.
Feels like the same story every tech cycle, big hype and bigger cash. Do you think this one’s different?
It might be a bubble, but bubbles can last a long time. Here are some famous quotes to illustrate the problem:
“Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." – A. Gary Shilling, twice named Wall Street’s top economist.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch, American investor, mutual fund manager, author and philanthropist.
We know evaluations are high. We know that AI has not delivered on its promises at least not yet. Investor confidence remains high, but for how long? Nobody knows.
Personally, I think any correction will swiftly bounce because the government will print money to make sure there’s a speedy recovery. We have seen a push to boosting the economy through intensive money printing instead of allowing valuations to crash properly. The Fed loves to kick the can down the road more than anything.
It might be a bubble, but bubbles can last a long time. Here are some famous quotes to illustrate the problem:
“Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." – A. Gary Shilling, twice named Wall Street’s top economist. “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch, American investor, mutual fund manager, author and philanthropist.We know evaluations are high. We know that AI has not delivered on its promises at least not yet. Investor confidence remains high, but for how long? Nobody knows.
Personally, I think any correction will swiftly bounce because the government will print money to make sure there’s a speedy recovery. We have seen a push to boosting the economy through intensive money printing instead of allowing valuations to crash properly. The Fed loves to kick the can down the road more than anything.
It’s a race to reach AGI first and if it isn’t real, the bubble’s got a long way left to grow i guess.
AGI is possible, the question is whether this bubble will reach it, or if it will arise out of the corpses after the crash.
I personally don’t think the current LLM tech will ever evolve into AGI, but it’s totally possible one of these companies will moonshot AGI off the side of one of their engineer’s desk accidentally.
The infrastructure that’s going to be left sitting around after the impending crash is going to make for some absolutely insanely cheap opportunities for some really smart (or lucky) groups of people to pull off the miracle and/or catastrophe that will be AGI.
Llms can’t become agi. Not with how they’re built today. They’re a giant text processing and association engine trained on reddit comments. It only appears smart to us because it speaks English like the internet does.
But they cant think. Not really. They can only associate existing ideas and thoughts. Not make new ones.
I’m sure the government will absorb most of that unused infrastructure. And another thing, if anyone’s going to develop it, it’ll be DARPA.
A hell of a lot of advancement comes from “that’s strange” and “oops”
DARPA doesn’t tend to be the one doing anything but supplying some funding.
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OR someone is prepping up for the rugpull. There’s never shortage of government officials doing insider trading in the land of the free. It’s not like its run by a failed businessman who’s using it to raise his worth.
It’s a manipulation bubble as in they’re counting on it until the end of the tenure to make off with billions. For everyone else, it’s a “AI” bubble.
As long as the Fed keeps lowering rates, the bubble will continue growing. As soon as it looks like the Fed will have to raise rates again, get out.
Two things: when an article headline is phrased as a question, you can usually assume the answer is no.
Secondly, even if it is true, you still shouldn’t be changing your investment strategy. Trying to time the market is how people lose their savings. The smart approach to personal finance is setting things up so you don’t even need to pay attention to what the market’s doing. You have a strategy - and you stick to it.
The people who claim to have foresight about what’s going to happen are free to put their money where their mouth is and profit from it.
I’d suggest keeping 2 accounts if you want to play the market. One that’s stable for most of your investment money, and one to play around with.
Fuck it, just valuate tech companies with quadrillions, or even quintillions. Why not? We’re already in the realm of fantasy.
Why not?
Because you can’t. There’s no central switch to crank up valuations - it’s all crowd psychology expressed in dollars.
Maybe the real question isn’t whether it’s a bubble but whether everyone’s betting on the wrong players while DARPA quietly builds the real thing. Can you really beat DARPA?
DARPA doesn’t build the real thing, they fund the building of the real thing, it’s their MO. The robot dogs and bipeds and quadcopter drones that Boston Dynamics and Anduril and other companies have been building are the frontier and DARPA is one financier amongst a sea of others. The Ellisons just bought our military, apparently, or at least purchased a $130M stake in it, to illustrate a point that we’re fucked even if the robots don’t end up being the most efficient way to do the deed.
