So in this URL, you can see the 2020 lines for how North Carolina voted. If that’s total counted votes after it was all over, then this page will be not so useful until all the 2024 votes are counted.
However, if it ONLY shows early/mail-in votes, then we’re in trouble. On almost every state I click the democrats have NOT reached their 2020 numbers, while the republicans are close to their 2020 numbers. In some cases surpassing 2020 numbers slightly.
The context relies heavily on what those 2020 ticks are measuring. Total votes? Or only Early/Mail-in votes?
Based on this breakdown It looks to be a comparison of all absentee ballots (which includes early voting, i.e absent from Election Day voting).
Ok. Based on this, it appears there’s roughly 1 million people who didn’t vote early in 2020. It’s impossible to really get any solid trends with this info. I was hoping to get some non-biased trends, just based on facts. But the facts show the numbers, but the numbers don’t really show any way to predict the state early.
Ah well. Guess the next 5 days will be the longest 6 months ever.
There were a lot more absentee Democrat voters in 2020 because of covid.
I had the same question. I’m hoping the line shows total votes and the bars will increase as in person votes are added to the total
Looks like the 2020 ticks are including mail in voting in 2020, which was heavily expanded during the pandemic. Places like North Carolina and Texas have immediately gone back to restricting absentee ballots. So yes there are less early votes, because they’ve gone back to restricting mail ballots.
Here I see there were just over 1 million votes by mail in North Carolina in 2020. Here I see that there were about 240,000 votes by mail in North Carolina through the 2nd. You could probably find a more up to date number, but you get the idea.
…yeah, I know it INCLUDES early voting, and it also includes mail-in voting.
What I’m asking is if it also includes ALL voting. Do those ticks include people who went to the polls on Nov 5th 2020, and thus wouldn’t be counted fully for a few days?
Yes, like a mail in vote that arrived on election day. It wouldn’t be included in today’s “early voting” numbers, but it would have been included in the total number of mail in votes in 2020 that I’m comparing it too. But don’t expect a big change.
The 2020 numbers might be deceiving and impossible to compare to. Mail in voting was heavily expanded, which skewed Democrat, so early voting results in 2020 skewed Democrat. Then election day skewed more Republican than normal too. It’s not going to follow that exact pattern again.